Clinical Benefits and Budget Impact of Lenzilumab plus Standard of Care Compared with Standard of Care Alone for the Treatment of Hospitalized Patients with COVID-19 in the United States from the Hospital Perspective (preprint)

Aims: The study estimated the clinical benefits and budget impact of lenzilumab plus standard of care (SOC) compared with SOC alone in the treatment of hospitalized COVID-19 patients from the United States hospital perspective. Materials and Methods: An economic model was developed to estimate the clinical benefits and costs for an average newly hospitalized COVID-19 patient, with a 28-day time horizon for the index hospitalization. Clinical outcomes from the LIVE-AIR trial included failure to achieve survival without ventilation (SWOV), mortality, time to recovery, intensive care unit (ICU) admission, and invasive mechanical ventilation (IMV) use. Base case costs included drug acquisition and administration for lenzilumab and hospital resource costs based on the level of care required. The inclusion of 1-year rehospitalization costs was examined in a scenario analysis. Results: In the base case and all scenarios, treatment with lenzilumab plus SOC improved all specified clinical outcomes over SOC alone. Adding lenzilumab to SOC was also estimated to result in cost savings of $3,190 per patient in a population aged <85 years with CRP <150 mg/L and receiving remdesivir (base case). Per-patient cost savings were also estimated in the following scenarios: 1) aged <85 years with CRP <150 mg/L, with or without remdesivir ($1,858); 2) Black and African American patients with CRP <150 mg/L ($13,154); and 3) Black and African American patients from the full population ($2,763). In the full mITT population, a budget impact of $4,952 was estimated. When adding rehospitalization costs to the index hospitalization, a total per-patient cost savings of $5,154 was estimated. Conclusions: The results highlight the clinical benefits for SWOV, ventilator use, time to recovery, mortality, time in ICU, and time on IMV, in addition to a favorable budget impact from the United States hospital perspective associated with adding lenzilumab to SOC for patients with COVID-19 pneumonia.

The Epidemiology of COVID-19 and applying Non Pharmaceutical interventions by using the Susceptible, Infectious Recovered epidemiological Model in Pakistan. (preprint)

Introduction: The COVID-19 is caused by the virus known as sever acute respiratory syndrome corona virus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) having the common symptoms such as Flue, fever, dry cough and shortness of breath. The first case was reported in WUHAN city china in December 2019 and it spread to the whole world, WHO declared as world pandemic on 11th march 2020. SIR Epidemiological Model: The first case in Pakistan was confirmed on 26th Feb 2020 as by the 8th April 2020 the total no of confirmed cases 4187 with 58 deaths and 467 recoveries throughout the country. The upcoming situation of the COVID-19 in Pakistan is forecasted by using SIR epidemiological, which is one of the mathematical derivative models with great accuracy rate prediction used for infectious disease. This model was introduced in the early 20th century. Results: Pakistan is will be having a heavy burden of patients 80000 plus infected patients 45000 recoveries 10000 hospitalized 3000 ICU and 800 plus deaths in the next 20 days. A complete lock down, social distancing and imposing curfew to keep every person at home can save Pakistan from a very huge number 1000000 infected patients with huge number of causalities with next 2 months. Key words: COVID-19, Coronavirus COV2, Pakistan, SIR model